Market Profile Analysis of S&P Futures – March 1, 2016

Market Profile Analysis of S&P Futures – March 1, 2016

5 Secrets to Help You Build Wealth by Investing

• KEY TAKEAWAYS
• Your investor returns are what matter most—it's the money in your pocket after all is said and done.
• Betterment can add 4.3% in additional investor returns with our smart platform that helps you avoid pitfalls.

 It’s exciting when you hear that the stock market is up about 30%, which it was for 2013 overall. It sounds like good news for the economy, for Wall Street—but did you see a 30% return on your money? Probably not.
Typically there’s a gap between what the market returns (investment returns) and what actually lands in your pocket (investor returns). But you can close some of that gap—without taking any additional risk for your investments—by moving a few levers right now.
Whether you’re thinking of investing some extra cash or pushing your 401k or IRA to grow bigger, here are five ways to get more from your money immediately.

Cut costs

Investment fees (expense ratios, management fees, trading costs, etc.) often sound insignificant because they’re listed as a few dollars (e.g. per trade) or couched in percentages, often as low as 1%. Yet reducing these semi-hidden fees and costs is one of the biggest—and easiest—ways to improve your take-home returns.
Over 30 years, if you pay 0.31% in money management versus 1% on a starting portfolio of $100,000, say, that savings of 0.69% could add about $161,000 to your nest egg, assuming an average 8% return over that time (and no other contributions). Here’s another look at the cost difference with regular saving. The graph below assumes monthly contributions of $1,000 over a 40-year period, and shows returns net-of-fees, on a total return of 8%.

Index it

How do you lower investment costs? One way is to reduce specifically what you pay for the mutual funds and other investments in your 401k or portfolio. Actively managed funds (with a team of money managers at the helm) charge more than index funds, which mirror the performance of a certain market sector.
You might like the sound of having an active manager who’s on top of a certain mutual fund, but research published in the peer-reviewed Journal of Indexes in January 2014 demonstrated that over a 15-year period, an all index fund portfolio outperformed a portfolio of active funds 83% of the time.
The median annual shortfall of the losing active portfolios was  -1.25%. By using all index funds in your portfolio, you’re primed to capture that 1.25% advantage over the long term.

Diversify your investments

Having your eggs in many baskets is smart investing—but contrary to popular belief that’s doesn’t mean investing with multiple providers. (That typically only leads to a diversity of fees.)
Ideally, you want to be invested in a range of asset classes. This can help you reap the benefits of market upswings, while mitigating the blow when there are dips.
A recent analysis by our investment team compared a typical DIY, two-fund portfolio to our global portfolio of up to 12 ETFs (depending on risk level). Over a 10-year period, the diversified portfolio outperformed the benchmark by 1.4% on a risk-adjusted basis at a 70% stock allocation.
In dollar terms, that means the same $100,000 invested between 2004 and the end of 2013 would have been worth about $15,000 more in the diversified portfolio—with no more risk. That’s money on the table.

Automate the details

Now that you’ve come this far, you can’t forget about the details.
Certain investment tasks (rebalancing, dividend reinvesting, etc.) are like housekeeping: they keep your funds neat and tidy so your portfolio does what it’s supposed to. And like housekeeping, those tasks are tedious—yet crucial. When your portfolio drifts away from your original allocation, for example, it usually means you are taking on unwanted risk that could hurt your returns over time.
Studies have shown that regular automatic rebalancing helps you to keep 0.4% more of your returns.
But to make sure you’re getting the full benefit of basic maintenance, don’t leave those details to chance. Look for an investment manager that does this automatically and without any extra trading fees associated with completing this task.

Behave yourself

Once you’ve taken the first four steps and have yourself in a globally diversified portfolio of low-cost index-fund ETFs, the final step might be the hardest—and yet also the easiest—to complete.
It’s the choice to do nothing. Yes, you read that right. Nothing. Nada. Zilch.
A number of academic studies have shown that bad timing decisions—e.g. emotional or impulsive investment choices—cause investors to sacrifice a significant portion of their returns. That behavior gap has been estimated to cost anywhere from about 1% to 6% of an investor’s returns.
That’s why it’s important to find an investment manager who’s on your side—ideally an automated yet sophisticated system that allows you to make the best decisions, yet is also equipped with safeguards so you don’t careen off-track.

3 Simple Steps To Building Wealth

Building wealth - it's a topic that sparks heated debate, promotes quirky "get rich quick" schemes and drives people to pursue transactions they might otherwise never consider. "Three Simple Steps To Building Wealth" may seem like a misleading title, but it isn't. While these steps are simple to understand, they're not easy to follow.

The Steps Basically, building wealth boils down to this: To accumulate wealth over time, you need to do three things:

1. You need to make it. This means that before you can begin to save or invest, you need to have a long-term source of income that's sufficient enough to have some left over after you've covered your necessities.
2. You need to save it. Once you have an income that's enough to cover your basics, you need to develop a proactive savings plan.
3. You need to invest it. Once you've set aside a monthly savings goal, you need to invest it prudently.

Getting on TrackStep1: Making Enough Money This step may seem elementary, but for those who are just starting out, or are in transition, this is the most fundamental step. Most of us have seen tables showing that a small amount regularly saved and compounded over time can eventually add up to substantial wealth. But those tables never cover the other sides of the story - that is, are you making enough to save in the first place? And are you good enough at what you do and do you enjoy it enough that you can do it for 40 or 50 years in order to save that money?
To begin, there are two types of income - #earned and passive. Earned income comes from what you "do for a living," while passive income is derived from investments. This section deals with earned income.
Those beginning their careers or in the midst of a career change can think about the following four considerations to decide how to derive their "earned income":

1. Consider what you enjoy. You will perform better and be more likely to succeed financially doing something you enjoy.
2. Consider what you're good at. Look at what you do well and how you can use those talents to earn a living.
3. Consider what will pay well. Look at careers using what you enjoy and do well that will meet your financial expectations.
4. Consider how to get there (educational requirements, etc.). Determine the education requirements, if any, needed to pursue your options.

Taking these considerations into account will put you on the right path. The key is to be open-minded and proactive. You should also evaluate your income situation annually.
Step 2: Saving Enough of It You make enough money, you live pretty well, but you're not saving enough. What's wrong? There's only one reason why this occurs: your wants exceed your #budget. To develop a budget or to get your existing budget on track, try these steps:

1. Track your spending for at least a month. You may want to use a financial software package to help you do this. If not, your checkbook is the best place to start. Either way, make sure you categorize your expenditures. Sometimes just being aware of how much you are spending will help you control your spending habits.
2. Trim the fat. Break down your wants and needs. The need for food, shelter and clothing are obvious, but you also need to address less obvious needs. For instance, you may realize you're eating lunch at a restaurant every day. Bringing your own lunch to work two or more days a week will help you save money.
3. Adjust according to your changing needs. As you go along, you probably will find that you've over- or under-budgeted a particular item and need to adjust your budget accordingly.
4. Build your cushion - you never really know what's around the corner. You should aim to save around three to six months' worth of living expenses. This savings prepares you for financial setbacks, such as job loss or health problems. If saving this cushion seems daunting, start small. 
5. Get matched! Contribute to your employer's 401(k) or 403(b) and try to get the maximum your employer is matching. Some employers match 100% of the participant's contribution, and this can be a big incentive to add even a few dollars each paycheck. 

The most important step is to distinguish between what you really need and what you merely want. Finding simple ways to save a few extra bucks here there could include programming your thermostat to turn itself down when you're not at home, using plain unleaded gasoline instead of premium, keeping your tires fully inflated, buying furniture from a quality thrift shop and learning how to cook. This doesn't mean that you have to be thrifty all the time: if you're meeting savings goals, you should be willing to reward yourself and splurge (an appropriate amount) once in a while! You'll feel better and be motivated to make more money.

Step 3: Investing It Appropriately
You're making enough money and you're saving enough, but you're putting it all in conservative investments. That's fine, right? Wrong! If you want to build a sizable portfolio, you have to take on risk, which means you'll have to invest in #equities. So how do you determine what's the right exposure for you? (Confused about risk? Read Determining Risk And The Risk Pyramid.)
Begin with an assessment of your situation. The CFA Institute advises investors to build an Investment Policy Statement. To begin, determine your return and risk objectives. Quantify all of the elements affecting your financial life including household income, your time horizon, tax considerations, cash flow/liquidity needs and any other factors that are unique to you.
Next, determine the appropriate asset allocation for you. Most likely, you will need to meet with a financial advisor unless you know enough to do this on your own. This allocation will be based on the Investment Policy Statement you have devised. Your allocation will most likely include a mixture of cash, #fixed #income, equities and alternative investments.
Risk averse investors should keep in mind that portfolios need at least some equity exposure to protect against inflation. Also, younger investors can afford to allocate more of their portfolios to equities than older investors, as they have time on their side.
Finally, #diversify. Invest your equity and fixed income exposures over a range of classes and styles. Do not try to time the #market. When one style (e.g., large cap growth) is #underperforming the S&P 500, it is quite possible that another is #outperforming. Diversification takes the timing element out of the game. A qualified investment advisor can help you develop a prudent diversification strategy.
Conclusion#Building #wealth over time depends on the #successful #execution of three steps: 1) having enough income, 2) saving an adequate portion of that income and 3) investing what you save prudently. Getting on the path that leads to wealth begins with a thoughtfully constructed plan and diligent execution of that plan. An investor who stays on that course should in time find that he or she is successfully building wealth.

MARKET PROFILE Friday, March 13, 2015

Friday, March 13, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 9:16 AM on Friday, March 13th, 2015

Good Morning
Value areas and POC figures for /ESH5 and /NQH5 are posted free every morning HERE.
I’m doing a webinar with WindoTrader on Wednesday, March 18th at 4:30pm EST. This will not be a software demo but rather an educational presentation showing the techniques I employ daily to trade /ES using market profile references together with market internals and charts to enter and exit trades. It’s free and you can register at this link: HERE.

click to enlarge

“p” formation of short covering rally yesterday. We’ll see if that brings in any new buyers today or we fade back into range. As always, all about where value develops.
Overnight inventory rather balanced and futures close to flat coming into bell.
Overnight low well above VAL so first inclination is that it’s holding at least thus far.
Halfback is right at VAL, so I’m putting more weight on VAL than I normally would.
Yesterday has two distributions. As such, pay attention to the single prints between them. We are currently trading right in the single prints here close to the open.

#investing #options #trading #price #action #commodities #/es #/cl #nq #qm #ferguson #obama

Stock futures flat after volatile week, oil drops again

NEW YORK - U.S. #stock #index #futures were little changed on Friday as #investors held off on making bets following a volatile week that was marked by sharp swings in both directions.
The #benchmark #S&P #500 posted its biggest one-day gain since early February on Thursday, a rally that offset the biggest one-day loss since early January on Tuesday.

Equities have recently been driven by the U.S. dollar, with the S&P having a high inverse correlation to the currency. Thursday's equity rally corresponded with the biggest one-day drop in the U.S. dollar index <.dxy> in a month.
The dollar index has risen almost 2 percent this week, and is on track for a fourth week of gains. Investors see the continued strength in the greenback as a threat to multinational corporate profits. The index rose 0.1 percent on Friday.
#Wall #Street has also been focused on when the #Federal #Reserve will raise interest rates, with some strong economic data recently suggesting the first hike could come as early as June. Higher rates tend to raise borrowing costs for companies and individuals and crimp spending, though strong indicators are seen as better for the market in the long term.
Trading could be volatile ahead of next week's Fed meeting, when the central bank could provide further insight into when the first rate increase will come.
A preliminary read on March consumer sentiment will be released after the market opens, with the University of #Michigan #Surveys of Consumers seen essentially holding steady with the previous report.
Crude oil fell 1.7 percent, which could weigh on energy names. The commodity has fallen in six of the past seven sessions.
Walt Disney Co will be in focus after the company said it had started work on a sequel to "Frozen," the best-selling animated movie of all time. Shares rose 0.5 percent to $107.70 in premarket.
#FXCM Inc jumped 15 percent to $2.48 in heavy #premarket trading a day after the company reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat expectations. This was the currency broker's first quarterly report since the removal of the cap on the Swiss franc sparked massive losses that pushed it to take a rescue loan.

#ferguson #obama #ISIS #facebook #twitter #linkedin

MARKET PROFILE March 11, 2015

Currently we are gapping up about +7.50. As overnight inventory is 100% net long, this is setting up the Goldilocks Gap play. Fade it if the early trade cannot take out the ONH. Given where the market is on the daily chart and not at any specific support for awhile, I believe there could be more lows to come and that the overnight move is one of short covering as people simply over did it yesterday which is what happens consistently in this market. Yesterday’s initial gap down was very large and sellers came out in force to accept these lower prices and take futures much lower in the RTH session. This is another reason I would be thinking that some lower prices today are imminent.
As yesterday’s value and range broke cleanly away from the prior day, our references are mostly contained to within yesterday’s range. Thus let’s be keenly aware of where VAH, VAL, and the POC are. Current overnight action is trading right at the volume POC of 2048.75. Are traders emboldened over this level? Are they more scared? We’ll see.@

MARKET PROFILE REPORT Tuesday, March 10, 2015

Good Morning
#Value #areas and POC figures for /ESH5 and /NQH5 are posted free every morning HERE.
I’m doing a webinar with WindoTrader on Wednesday, March 18th at 4:30pm EST. This will not be a software demo but rather an educational presentation showing the #techniques I employ daily to trade /ES using #market #profile references together with #market #internals and charts to enter and exit trades. It’s free and you can register at this link: HERE.
Having some issues getting the show ready this morning for Brad so I’m going to forgo the commentary today. Tune in to the #SquawkBox at 9:15am EST to get my run down on how I plan on #trading this day.